Indigenous Weather Forecasting Methods among the Kikuyu Community of Kenya

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to identify and document the indigenous knowledge used by the Kikuyu community of Kenya to forecast weather events.

Methodology: The study involved farmers and agricultural officers from Murang’a, Kirinyaga, and Nyeri counties. The study used a convergent parallel mixed-methods approach, underpinned by a pragmatic paradigm. Stratified sampling and simple random sampling were used to select farmers, while agricultural officers with relevant knowledge were selected using purposeful sampling. Questionnaires were administered to 383 farmers, of whom 326 were duly filled out. Qualitative data were analysed using content analysis, while quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics in SPSS, and the results were presented in figures and tables.

Findings: The study revealed that the Kikuyu community uses a diverse range of weather forecasting indicators. The most frequently mentioned signs of impending rainfall were heavy, dark clouds (82% of respondents), frog croaking (76%), thunder (74%), and an unusual temperature increase (70%). For predicting dry weather, the most common indicators were persistent clear skies (85%), high daytime temperatures (79%), and constant morning dew (72%). Indicators such as heavy, dark clouds, thunder and lightning, and persistent clear skies were rated highly accurate, with mean scores above 4.5 on a 5-point scale. Collaborative platforms and structured training programs were recommended for enhancing knowledge sharing and weather forecasting.

Implications: The study enriches understanding of indigenous weather forecasting by documenting diverse Kikuyu indicators and demonstrating their reliability alongside scientific methods. Grounded in the theory of knowledge pluralism, it shows that integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge can enhance weather forecasting, support policy development, and preserve traditional wisdom for future generations.

Originality: This study makes an original contribution by documenting previously underexplored indigenous weather-prediction knowledge among the Kikuyu community in Kenya, thereby enriching the understanding of indigenous knowledge systems.