Modelling and Forecasting of COVID-19 New Cases in the Top 10 Infected African Countries from February 14 to September 06, 2020

Abstract

Rationale of Study – COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that has resulted in an  outbreak of viral pneumonia around the world. The total case has reached  3,581,783 (shared 78.5%) with 102,201 (84.4%) total deaths and 3,214,512  (78.7%) recoveries in the top 10 infected African countries as of April 28, 2021 at  10:30 am. This study models and forecasts COVID-19 new cases in the top 10  infected African countries from February 14 to September 06, 2020.   
Methodology – The COVID-19 new cases data was modelled and forecasted using  curve estimation regression model and time series model from February 14 to  September 6, 2020. 
Findings – The cubic regression models for the data were relatively the best fit for  Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. The quadratic  regression models for the data were the best fit for Cameroon, Cote dʹIvoire, and  Ghana. The Algerian data was followed by the logarithmic regression model. In  the time series analysis, the Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa COVID-19 new  cases data have fitted the ARIMA (0,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,0), and ARIMA (0,1,14)  models, respectively. The Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria data have  fitted the simple exponential smoothing models. Ethiopia, Kenya, and Morocco  data have followed the Damped trend, Holt, and Brown exponential smoothing  models, respectively.  
Implications – The findings of the study may be used for preparedness planning  against further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in African countries. The  author recommends that as many countries continue to relax restrictions on  movement and mass gatherings, and more are opening of their air spaces and  other sectors, strong and appropriate public health and social measures must be  instituted to prevent further spread of the virus. 
Originality – The paper contributes a model which can be used to predict  occurrence of new COVID-19 cases in top 10 infected African countries.